Net Domestic Migration Increased in Many U.S. Counties in 2021

Over two thirds (73.1%) of U.S. counties had more deaths than births from July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021, up from 55.5% during the same period a year earlier.

When there are more people dying than babies being born, this is known as “natural decrease.” While the newly released data may suggest widespread population declines, this was not the case.

Net domestic migration trends remained broadly similar between the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 periods in all regions except the West, which shifted from slight net domestic in-migration to outmigration (Table 1).

The South’s net domestic migration from July 1, 2019, to June 30, 2020, already the largest among the regions, increased by another 154,000 in the 2020-2021 period.

Table 2 shows the top 15 Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs) with increases in net domestic migration between 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. A CSA is defined by the Office of Management and Budget as an area that consists of various combinations of adjacent metropolitan and/or micropolitan areas with economic ties measured by commuting patterns.

Of the top 15 CSAs with increases in net domestic migration, seven were in the South and four in the West, while the Northeast and Midwest each had two CSAs.

The share of counties that experienced positive net domestic migration increased from under half (45.8%) during the 2019-2020 period to nearly two thirds (65.6%) in the 2020-2021 period.

While nearly one out of four counties (24.5%) switched from net domestic outmigration to in-migration during the 2020-2021 period, only about 1 in 20 (5.1%) went from net domestic in-migration to outmigration.  

As shown in Table 4, on average, smaller counties tended to have increases in net domestic migration this past year, while larger counties (those with populations of 500,000 or more) tended to have decreases in net domestic migration. 

The maps below illustrate the changing patterns of net domestic migration for counties between the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 migration periods.

A number of areas had increases in the rate of net domestic migration in 2020-2021 (Figure 2) compared to 2019-2020 migration period (Figure 1), showing that more people per 1,000 population entered a county than left.

These areas include much of northern New England, parts of the Catskills in New York and Poconos in Pennsylvania, the Ozarks region of Missouri and Arkansas, northern Michigan and Wisconsin, and much of the interior West.

Some of these areas may have attracted more domestic migration during the pandemic because of their higher numbers of seasonal housing units. Again, it’s important to keep in mind that these increases in net migration rates may reflect more people moving into a county, fewer people leaving the county, or both.

Other counties that saw large increases in net domestic migration are outer counties of metro areas. The Columbus, Ohio, and Indianapolis, Indiana, metro areas are good examples (Figure 2).

There were also clear differences in the patterns of the rates.

In the 2019-2020 period, there was a higher prevalence of negative net domestic migration (outmigration) counties. The prevalence of counties with rates of in-migration over 10.0 migrants per 1,000 people was more apparent in 2020-2021 than in 2019-2020.

Overall, the pattern of high in-migration rates was widespread across the country and particularly strong in the Midwest, Northeast and the South.